Expert Explains Why 'Very Severe' Cyclone Biparjoy Underwent Rapid Intensification | Weather.com
Thursday, June 8 : Last week, forecasters caught the scent of something brewing in the Arabian Sea -- something that smelt suspiciously like a cyclone. And their instincts proved right, for Cyclone Biparjoy currently ravages parallel to India's western coast as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
Much like the lull before the storm, the system was a mere cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea as of Monday, June 5. As per the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) predictions at the start of this week, the system was supposed to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm by early Wednesday (June 7), further strengthen into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by Thursday (June 8) evening, and finally achieve the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm status by Saturday (June 10) evening.
However, Biparjoy seems to have a mind of its own, and a hot one at that! Defying all early predictions, the Low-Pressure Area on Monday quickly evolved into a Depression by Tuesday, before intensifying into the Cyclonic Storm and then a Severe Cyclonic Storm in rapid succession on Wednesday itself.
And then, in a rather aggressive display of its prowess, Biparjoy strengthened once again, turning into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over east-central Arabian Sea yesterday -- three days before the IMD forecast had originally suggested!
Furthermore, Biparjoy was projected to pack a maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph, gusting to 150 kmph by Sunday (June 11). True to form, Cyclone Biparjoy exceeded expectations here as well, with its wind speeds already touching 135-145 kmph, gusting to 160 kmph this morning.
More Context
-What are the wind speeds expected during the cyclone?
IMD projects the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm will continue to gradually intensify in the next 48 hours. It may reach its peak on Friday (June 9), with wind speeds likely to touch 145-155 kmph, gusting to 170 kmph.
Biparjoy's journey from a cyclonic circulation (June 5) to a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (June 7) spanned a mere 48 hours, making its intensification faster than May's Cyclone Mocha!
Advertisement According to Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and lead IPCC author, three factors favour this cyclone:
"We are presently witnessing weak monsoon winds, and under such circumstances, a cyclone develops favourably in the Arabian Sea. If the southwest monsoon current is strong, winds blow in two directions -- southwest in lower levels and northeast in upper levels," Koll told IANS.
"This would not allow the weather system to rise vertically and form into a cyclonic storm. However, when the monsoon is weak, the cyclone can develop vertically as it can cut through the winds and move upwards."
Meanwhile, this is already the second cyclone to have formed in the North Indian Ocean in the past three weeks, following Cyclone Mocha, which also went up to the intensity of a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
Recent years have also shown an increase in the frequency of cyclones developing around the onset of monsoon (take 2021's Cyclone Tauktae too, for instance), and scientists have linked this increased cyclonic activity to rising ocean temperatures and increased moisture availability thanks to global warming.
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