When and Where Will Cyclone Biparjoy Make Landfall? | Weather.com
Tuesday, June 13 : After spending over a week in the Arabian Sea, Cyclone Biparjoy finally looks set to make landfall over Gujarat later this week. Despite having started off as a Low Pressure Area last week and grown into a mighty Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm in almost no time, Biparjoy has been one of the longest-lasting cyclones to impact India in recent decades.
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-Where exactly is the cyclone expected to make landfall?
If you're wondering why this is of consequence, it's because the longer a cyclonic storm remains over the sea, the more energy and moisture it is likely to accumulate. This also increases the chances of the storm becoming more severe and causing destruction after landfall.
As per weather models, Biparjoy's slow movement has been down to steering winds and anticyclonic circulations on either side of the system. Its sluggishness also made it difficult to predict where it would make landfall, India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told TOI.
But now that we have the specifics, let's also understand what landfall is, its possible effects and some dos and don'ts to protect yourself from its impacts.
A cyclone is said to have made "landfall" when its 'eye' shifts from sea to land across the coast. The US National Hurricane Centre defines it as 'the intersection of the surface centre of a tropical cyclone with a coastline'.
Storms typically feed on the ocean's heat and moisture to maintain their massive size and speed. But this intake is cut off the minute they begin approaching land, resulting in the cyclone's strength diminishing quickly.
Such storms start to quell rapidly after landfall, and when the eye of the storm moves directly overhead, the storm's winds abate sharply and the sky looks clear -- giving the impression of a temporary lull. But one must remember that some of the storm's most powerful winds are also found near the eye. And this can be dangerous for areas within the cyclone's path, as they can be prone to high-speed winds, significant storm surges and torrential downpours.
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-What are the wind speeds expected during the cyclone?
At 11:30 PM on Monday night, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy weakened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over the northeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea. It moved north-northwestwards overnight, and as of 5:30 AM on Tuesday morning, it lay centred at about 300 km west-southwest of Gujarat's Porbandar, 340 km south-southwest of Jakhau Port, and 480 km south of Karachi, Pakistan.
According to IMD, Biparjoy will likely remain on this trajectory and continue its near-northward journey until Wednesday (June 14) morning.
Then, it will move north-northeastwards and cross Saurashtra-Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts, with the precise landfall location lying between Mandvi in Gujarat and Karachi in Pakistan, near Gujarat's Jakhau Port.
Cyclone Biparjoy is expected to make landfall by Thursday noon (June 15).
It is likely to cross the coast as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph, gusting to 150 kmph.
5-day rainfall forecast from Tuesday to Sunday over regions affected by Cyclone Biparjoy (TWC Met Team)
Advertisement While most interior districts will escape Biparjoy's wrath with some light to moderate rains, the coastal districts will witness much more intense precipitation activity. Heavy to very heavy rains (115.5 mm - 224.5 mm) have been forecast over Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagarh and Morbi districts of Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday (June 14) -- a day before landfall.
But on the day of the landfall, the intensity can go up to extremely heavy falls (224.5 mm) in isolated parts of Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka and Jamnagar, and heavy to very heavy rainfall (115.5 mm-224.5 mm) at a few places over Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi and Junagarh districts on Thursday (June 15). Isolated heavy rains (64.5 mm-115.5 mm) are very likely over the remaining districts of Saurashtra and the north Gujarat region on the landfall day as well.
Sea conditions along and off the Saurashtra and Kutch coasts are likely to be rough to very rough till Wednesday morning, followed by high to phenomenal until Thursday noon.
A storm surge of about 2-3 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the low-lying areas in the Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar and Morbi districts on during the landfall on Thursday.
Further, fisherfolk have been strongly advised against venturing into the sea due to the aforementioned unstable conditions and strong gale winds in the area.
When Cyclone Biparjoy makes landfall, the resulting rainfall activity and strong winds can cause the following damage in areas lying in its path:
Total destruction of thatched houses/extensive damage to kutcha houses, with some damage to pucca houses
Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down bushy trees like mango
Government bodies have made plans to keep the residents safe from the impending cyclone.
Adequate numbers of teams and assets of the National Disaster Response Force, Indian Army, navy, air force and the Coast Guard are being deployed to assist the Gujarat government in their preparedness, rescue and restoration efforts, TOI reported.
Officials in the coastal districts of Kutch, Porbandar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Junagadh and Morbi have initiated the process of shifting people residing within 10 km distance from the shore to safer locations.
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-What measures have been taken to protect the coastal regions?
Roughly 7,500 people residing in low-lying areas near the Gujarat coast have already been shifted to safer places, with arrangements for accommodation, food and medicines already made for the evacuated. Over 12,000 people are also being evacuated from just Kutch and Dwarka -- the districts likely to face the brunt of the storm.
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